How Accurate are Political Polls?

There is something going on in America, and I don't think the political polls have really gotten a good read on its pulse. Once again, a major network poll (ABC/Washington Post) came out and showed that Obama has a 50% approval rating. Every single month, you can count on one of the big net works, ABC, NBC, CBS or CNN to come out with a poll that shows higher support for Obama than the vast majority of other polls. Surprisingly, the latest CBS poll showed him at only a 44% approval.

I read an interesting piece recently. Obama's approval among black voters remains very high at 90% and above. They will not abandon him, yet. Black voters have far more invested in Obama than any other voting bloc, because he is the first black president. They need him to do well, and I don't need to discuss the reasons why. Latino voters would feel the same about the first Latino president.

So, with 90% approval from black voters, you can bet that his approval rating among everyone else must be abysmal considering that his average total approval rating is only 47%. I guarantee that George W. Bush did not get 90% support from ANYONE during the last two years of his presidency.

But, I still think the 47% approval rating by the polls overstates them, or it at least overstates the publics approval with the Democrats as a whole. Here is why I think this. I just read an editorial piece by Joe Conason in the New York Observer. Conason is a liberal. His article is titled "Change at a Cost." He says voters should be careful what they wish for if they vote to change the power in Congress back to the Republicans.

When I read the article at about 9:30 this morning, there were 10 comments after the article. All of them lambasted Conason. There was not one supporting comment from a reader who agreed with Conason.

With this in mind, it is clear that the mood of the country toward the Democrats is much darker than what the polls state. While I still believe that the Republicans can find a way to screw up the election and not achieve the majority in the House, it is clear that, right now, the numbers for the Democrats could be far worse than what many polls are suggesting. Voters are much more angry now, and without Obama on the ballot, many black voters who turned out in 2008 won't be turning out in 2010.