Economists, highly paid by Wall Street firms to forecast the economy with the hope of determining the direction and strength of the stock market, are pretty much worthless. This is coming from someone who graduated with a BA in Economics.
Did economists see the housing bubble bursting? No. Did they see the plunge in the stock market and economic recession that resulted? No. Did they see the tech bubble in 1999? No. Did they see the resulting recession that resulted from that? No.
Obama's economists predicted that if the stimulus would not be passed last year that unemployment would rise to 9.0%. If it would be passed, unemployment would be capped at 8%. It was passed, and unemployment reached as high as 10.1% and currently stands at 9.5%.
Now, Obama shill Mark Zandi, the economist at Moody's, which failed to provide accurate bond ratings for many of the corporations and countries around the world over the last several years, is now out with an economic model that suggests that if the stimulus were not passed, we would have plunged into a 2nd Great Depression and unemployment would be at 15%. Why should we bother to believe the guy?
Every day we see economists arguing on CNBC about more stimulus spending or tax cuts, etc. They make forecasts about the strength of the economy through estimates of GDP, and neither side ever gets it right. They are no more accurate at forecasting the economy six months to a year down the road than a weather man is forecasting the weather two weeks ahead of time.
With that in mind, the government should learn to just quit paying attention to these idiots and get out of the way in regard to trying to assist the economy. The Federal Reserve Board, headed by Ben Bernanke, is full of economists. Last week, Bernanke indicated he really does not know what the current state of the economy is. That should tell you something.
The government relies on these economists to set policy, and since the government tries to solve our problems, this is not good. They are relying on bad information. Isn't that what George W. Bush relied on when he sent our troops to Iraq? Now you know the consequences when the government relies on bad information.
Friday, July 30, 2010
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